The price of the dollar has been showing signs of decline since the last decade of October, but it seems that the trend of prices in the market is not in line with experts’ forecasts and the rate of price decline is somewhat lower than expected.
According to this report, in a situation where many experts predict the real price of the dollar between 20 and 22 thousand Tomans, in the current situation, the price in a bank exchange is 25 thousand Tomans and in the open market is 26 thousand Tomans in the ceiling of this channel and the floor of the channel. But statistical data on the one hand, as well as political and economic signals on the other, show that the dollar will move downwards in the future.
Begin reviewing bills related to TFAs in the Expediency Council
The re-examination of bills related to the accession to the FATF in the Expediency Council is a very important signal for the foreign exchange market. Apart from the fact that this measure can reduce Iran’s political risk in the economic and banking structures, but another important point is to facilitate the return of money to the country.
In July of this year, the Central Bank had foreseen several cases to guarantee the return of currency from non-oil exports, but in the current situation, it seems that joining the FIFA convention facilitates the return of currencies from non-oil and even oil exports to the country. Make Iran possible with the world through the banking system.
Mehdi Pazouki, an economist, believes that not joining FATA has forced Iran to work with the 2nd and 3rd tier banks, which he refers to as subordinate banks, and that joining the convention could facilitate the process. Provided conditions and reduced the cost of Iranian trade. Experts believe that non-compliance has greatly increased Iran’s trade costs.
In one case, Seyed Kamal Seyed Ali, a former deputy head of the Central Bank, estimated the increase in spending at 15 to 25 percent, and Bahauddin Hosseini Hashemi, a former banking official and economist, estimated the rate at 15 percent. Thus, joining the FATF Convention could lead to the establishment of Iran’s banking relations with the international banking system. At the same time, facilitating banking transactions and reducing pressure on the foreign exchange market while reducing Iran’s trade costs will be the result of this action.
Experts believe that the reduction in pressure on the foreign exchange market is something that will happen in the short term, and other predictions, including the reduction of transaction costs and the establishment of banking relations and actions that will take place in the medium term.
America gives the green light to Barjam
On the other hand, with Biden coming to power in the United States and his installation in the White House, it is expected that this country will start its internal negotiations to return to Burjam. US government positions regarding returning to Burjam since Biden announced victory in US presidential election Impressed Iran. Seyed Kamal Seyed Ali, one of the experts, believes that apart from the Iranian Museum of New Negotiations with the United States and the international community, this US decision could pave the way for reducing pressure on the Iranian foreign exchange market as Iran’s trade risk is reduced and sanctions are reduced. . At the same time, it should be noted that these events can pave the way for further increase in oil exports and also facilitate Iran’s non-oil exports.
Increase in oil exports and non-oil exports
Although some critics of the government consider the forecast of 2 million and 300 thousand barrels of oil per day next year to be an optimistic and unrealistic forecast, foreign media have reported a significant increase in Iran’s oil exports even during the sanctions period. This means that Iran can take back its commercial territories as the lights go out.
Bijan Zanganeh, who is in Russia for talks with the Russian Minister of Energy, told reporters that it was too early to talk about Iran’s return to the world oil market, but that Iran’s diplomatic moves at the Ministry of Oil showed Iran was ready to return to the market. The world will be oil. At the same time, it should be noted that this is not the only Germany that affects the foreign exchange market, as the growth of Iran’s non-oil exports is predicted by easing economic conditions and improving the political situation.
The beginning of the end of the corona
The world is now preparing for a global vaccination to eradicate the epidemic of coronary heart disease. The received news shows that the Iranian corona vaccine is also on the way and without a doubt, the start of corona vaccination in Iran will affect the markets and the unveiling of the Iranian corona vaccine can also provide the ground for improving the economic conditions.
Thus, the 5 positive factors announced can testify that the prediction of a decrease in the exchange rate in the coming months will be achievable and the Baha’i of each dollar in the Iranian market will experience a significant decrease compared to the current situation. It is 350 Tomans, which at the peak of the increase in the price of this currency in the Tehran market had reached 32,000 Tomans, but the Tehran market is gradually getting ready to face the cheaper dollar.