Thus, it can be said that all markets were upward in the first half of the year, but their intensity was different in spring and summer. The third season of the year was a time to make up for the extra jump that occurred in spring and summer. In the fall, prices in all three markets retreated to make the desire for equilibrium more apparent; In terms of price trends, the stock market, the dollar and the coin experienced a downward convergence in the fall.
Autumn was the time of decline of all markets; The third quarter of this year with a sharp rise in prices in Currency market And the coin started, but this trend changed from the last week of October, and gradually, as sales increased, prices reached a lower level than at the end of the summer. The dollar, which was in the channel of 27,000 Tomans at the end of the summer, was at 25,450 Tomans on the last day of December; Two channels of decline in three months and a decline of 6.6 percent.
The dollar fell seasonally as US banknotes rose 43 percent in the summer and 18 percent in the spring. If the market trend is to change in the second half of the year, it can be imagined that in winter the price of this currency will decrease even more. In the foreign exchange market alone, the behavior of traders had not changed; in other markets, too, the general actors had become sellers. For example, the Emami coin lost more than 10 percent of its value in the third quarter of the year. This precious metal was in the channel of 13 million in late summer, while at the end of December it was in the range of 11 million and 770 thousand tomans, which showed a negative return of 10% of domestic precious metal. The coin experienced a 65% price increase in the summer and increased in the spring. Such a trend prevailed in the stock market. The overall stock index, which had an upward trend in the first and second seasons of the year, was affected by downward trends in the fall.
Thus, it can be said that all high-risk markets put their traders at a disadvantage in the first three months of the second half of the year, after the large profits they made in the first six months of the year. Two important factors influencing the downward trend of all markets can be identified; It seems that the currency and coin market trends in winter also determine their position under the influence of the first variable, namely the size of inflation expectations. Some believe that the possibility of Iran-US talks in the winter could lead to a further easing of inflation expectations and, as a result, a further drop in the price of coins and dollars. However, some activists believe that there will be no negotiations or that sanctions will not be lifted immediately. The group believes the markets will take a different path in the final season than in the fall. Of course, the market trend in the last days of autumn was more in line with the opinion of the first group. There was no special demand in the currency and coin market in the last days of the market. The same factor caused the dollar to lose about 1.9 percent of its value in December. The situation in the coin market was slightly different and this precious metal was able to resist the price reduction in December and increased by about 0.4 percent. Coin operators appear to be somewhat optimistic about the future growth of an ounce of gold, and expect the price of gold to move to higher levels with the passage of a support package in the United States. However, the coin will need wings and the help of dollars if it wants to experience a significant increase. Without the increase of the dollar, it is difficult for the coin to return even above 13 million tomans, which was the price of this precious metal at the end of the summer. In addition, in the stock market, the situation changed slightly in December and the overall stock index showed an upward behavior. With these descriptions, it can be said that the trend of the end of autumn indicated more about the possible strengthening of the stock market and coins against the dollar.
Narrating a descent in the fall
The behavior of the dollar in the fall can be divided into three different parts. The first three weeks of October, when the price was rising rapidly. The first decline of the market occurred three weeks before the US elections and the second fall of the dollar after the US elections. In the first phase, the dollar started its upward movement from the channel of 27 thousand Tomans and went above 32 thousand Tomans. From October 17, it went down the market direction and fell back to the range of 27,000 Tomans until the US elections, which is November 31. In fact, the dollar had returned all its October increase in early November. With the announcement of the preliminary results of the US election and Trump’s victory in some key states, the amount of purchases in the market increased greatly and even The price of the dollar Once again, it was on the threshold of 30,000 Tomans. However, with Biden’s victory, sales in the foreign exchange market increased sharply and even the price went below 24,000 tomans at some point. By the end of the fall, almost balanced conditions had prevailed in the market. The price mainly fluctuated between 25 thousand and 800 to 26 thousand and 300 tomans, until in the last days of December, the price of the dollar went below 25 thousand and 500 tomans. It is said that if the dollar loses the range of 25,200 tomans, it can fall to the channel of 24,000 tomans.