“Hard Choice” marks Scottish independence / Johnson gambled on Trump card / Australia’s trade model with Europe not applicable to London

The former Iranian diplomat in Britain said: “The problems with tariffs and the situation of British workers are only part of the problem, and the current challenge is the extent to which European fishermen have access to Britain’s rich waters for fishing.”

Seyed Jalal Sadatian, a former Iranian diplomat in the United Kingdom, told ILNA that London could leave the bloc without an agreement in the next two weeks. The party will finally reach an agreement on post-selection by the end of this year. What needs to be considered here is that with the ouster of Donald Trump from the US political structure and the rise of the Democrats, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is openly facing a very difficult challenge. Note that Johnson has practically lost his main supporter in Britain, Donald Trump, and this will cause him difficult equations and problems. If we say that Boris Johnson became an orphan after the departure of Donald Trump, we are not lying; Because of Trump’s support, he tried to fill the transatlantic relationship by filling in the gaps in the EU’s absence by leaning toward the United States.

He continued: “Note that there are only 9 days left until the end of the negotiations between the two sides, but the problems between the two continue.” The fact of the matter is that problems between the two sides are not resolved so easily; The issue of investment, as well as tariffs, as well as the employment of three million British workers on EU soil, remains a point of contention between the two sides. The next issue is the extent to which European fishermen have access to the rich British waters for fishing, and on the other hand, there is the issue of traffic issues in Northern and Southern Ireland. Accordingly, the problems that remain unresolved cannot be resolved in the short term, and I think that, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has stated, next week we will see an election without agreement.

“Johnson believes he can follow Australia’s model of trade relations with the European Union and apply the same model to London-Brussels trade relations,” he said. Note that the model of relations between Australia and the European Union is regulated by the rules of the World Trade Bank, but the problem is that Australia has no special proximity to the European Union. Britain, on the other hand, has basically had close relations and proximity to the European Union over the past decades. The problem is that British investors have been investing in European countries for years, and traders in other European countries have invested heavily in London. Accordingly, the economic entanglement between the UK and the EU is not easily resolved, and basically Australia’s trade model with the EU cannot be considered the same as the UK. The fact that Boris Johnson says he may follow the Australian-European business model is only one side of the issue, and the other is that the EU may not support the British Prime Minister’s plan.

Sadatian added: “Accordingly, the further we go, the stronger the possibility of holding early elections in Britain.” Of course, the issue of holding early elections is just an option and we can not consider it a strong scenario; Inside the House of Commons, Boris Johnson supporters are supporting him, but the Labor Party will criticize him as his opponent. Undoubtedly, the implementation of the “election without agreement” will not solve the problem, but here are two main axes; First, the problems that arise in the UK environment after the UK leaves the EU without the agreement, and second, its internal issues. Do not doubt that just a few days and hours after the announcement of Britain’s exit from the European Union without agreement, Scotland will raise the issue of holding a referendum.

He concluded: “The very important thing is that Scotland has been merely an observer over the past year and has only occasionally taken a stand against London.” Accordingly, if Scotland were to withdraw from the European Union without the consent of the British, Scotland would no doubt rise up against London and launch a referendum. However, no one knows what will happen to Boris Johnson with the arrival of Joe Biden. As I said at the beginning, Boris Johnson focused on Trump’s support and gambled on his card, but now the Democrats have taken over the White House. Accordingly, the implementation of the “hard choice” or the “choice without agreement” will have dangerous internal and external consequences for London, and it remains to be seen whether Johnson can afford these costs or not.