According to Tejarat News, although 99 was a very strange year for the capital market and the stock market saw two sides of the coin, but according to many experts, the events of 99 will not be repeated and 99 was an opportunity that stock market activists and the government did not appreciate. .
Hassan Sheibani, a capital market expert, told Tejarat-e-News about the 1400 stock exchange: “We should not expect the total index to grow two or three times in 1400, like in 99.” On the other hand, a large fall is no longer possible because the fall of the stock market was the result of dangerous growth in the capital market.
Regarding the market trends in 1400, Sheibani said: “Economic variables in terms of expected inflation and the ratio of sanctions in the country are more than in previous years.” On the other hand, imports in the country are almost closed and the demand side has no stimulus. For this reason, if the doors of the country are opened and relations with other countries improve, the capital market has the potential to move more positively than other markets. On the other hand, the officials and the head of the Central Bank are talking about a decrease in the exchange rate in 1400, while in May, Mr. Hemmati predicted a target of 22% inflation, but now inflation is about 40%. Regarding the dollar exchange rate, considering the money supply, liquidity growth and expected inflation of the foreign exchange market, there will be no downward trend in 1400. The scenario of a decrease in the price of currency in the first 6 months of the year is not possible.
Regarding the possibility of negotiations in 1400, the expert said: “There is a possibility that the economic situation for Iran will be facilitated, but this also depends on our own policies.” Negotiations are directly related to the elections and the next government in Iran. The US government will never negotiate with a government that has not had more than three months in its four-year term, and the negotiations will be left to the next administration. The main candidates for the 1400 elections have not been identified yet, but once the candidates are identified, we can analyze foreign policy and the possibility of negotiations. If a group with more interaction potential comes to work, a more positive pulse will be transmitted to the stock market. But on the other hand, if a group comes to power that believes in closing the doors of the country and non-negotiation, the stock market will reach equilibrium later. In both cases, however, I consider the stock market to be in equilibrium.
“There is no positive pulse for the stock market until the presidential election, and it looks like the stock market will have a balanced trend until then,” he said. But for the stock market trend of 1400, we have to overthrow the main presidential options and see how the West reacts to the new president.
The stock market situation in 1400 is far better than the second six months of 1999 because the expected inflation and optimism about the negotiations can affect the stock market conditions. Also, the stock market will be less risky than other markets, but will lead to better profits.
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