The head of the Faculty of Economics of Kharazmi University believes about the dollar rate in 1400: in the most optimistic state and economic reopening, the dollar rate will not fall below 20,000 tomans and will fluctuate around this figure.
The dollar has risen sharply in recent months. The price of the dollar had fluctuated sharply. The dollar fell after the US election. The price of the dollar has a direct impact on other commodities in the market. The price of the dollar will soon fall.
Two years and eight months after the controversial decision to announce the rate of 4,200 Tomans for the dollar by Ishaq Jahangiri, and in a situation where the dollar rate is about two months old, which has settled in the channel of 25,000 Tomans, President Hassan Rouhani announced the government’s plan to raise the exchange rate per year. The future has announced 11 thousand tomans.
“One of the most important issues in the budget was the exchange rate reform, and we announced in this budget that the price of the currency will fall today, and this is one of the important messages of our budget, and that means the value of the national currency,” he said last week. One of our goals is the value of the national currency and therefore we have considered the currency based on 11 thousand and 500 tomans. Let the world receive the message that the conditions for the production and sale of Iranian oil next year will be different from two years ago. “Next year, we will have the capacity to produce 2.3 million barrels per day, and we also have the power to sell it, that is, we will produce and sell.”
Although no economist has commented on the confirmation or rejection of the president’s remarks since the news was published, the silence of the government’s economic team after these remarks is also worth considering. Of course, some experts interpreted that the government thinks that the currency will be cheaper in 1400, and based on this forecast, it has considered the dollar rate in the range of 11,000 Tomans.
But now the question is, if the government could and could sell 2.3 million barrels of oil without lifting sanctions, why has it not reached this level of oil production and export since 1998? Perhaps this is why it is speculated that excessive optimism about the lifting of sanctions and the sale of oil at the level of 2 million and 300 thousand barrels has led to the determination of the exchange rate in the range of 11 thousand tomans. Of course, there are some economists who evaluate the government’s move to reduce foreign exchange rents and believe that the government has not been very successful in curbing rising commodity prices over the past two years, despite injecting reference currency, and that inflation has accelerated.
Hot News:Live 18+ Ms. Blogger with a 14-year-old boy
How many dollars in the open market?
As of today (yesterday) when this report is being written, the selling rate of the dollar in the informal foreign exchange market is 25,700 Tomans and the buying price of the dollar is 24,700 Tomans with a difference of 1,000 Tomans compared to the selling price. After the dollar reached channels above 30,000 Tomans and at the same time with the announcement of the preliminary results of the US elections, an optimistic approach emerged in the foreign exchange market and prices fell, but despite the drop in the dollar to 24,000 Tomans, once again and with The initial excitement subsided, the dollar exchange rate climbed to higher channels, and now it has remained in the channel of 25,000 Tomans for a month, and sometimes it is accompanied by fluctuations due to contradictory political and diplomatic news. However, due to its high “price stickiness”; There are no conditions for the dollar to fall.
Vahid Shaghaghishahri, Dean of the Faculty of Economics at Kharazmi University, believes about the dollar rate in 1400: In the most optimistic state and economic reopening, the dollar rate will not fall below 20,000 tomans and will fluctuate around this figure.
Referring to the situation of the dollar exchange rate in Iran, he said: “Nearly 70% of production costs in the country depend on the exchange rate and one of the serious harms of the Iranian economy is that a huge amount of raw materials, intermediates and machine parts are calculated at the exchange rate.”
“Despite all efforts, all commodities are still calculated at the dollar rate,” he said. Goods and services also have a direct impact.
Hot News:18-year-old Parisa committed a horrific murder after running away from home!
What factors affect the dollar exchange rate in 1400?
The head of the Faculty of Economics at Kharazmi University stated that the dollar’s valuation for the year 1400 is a function of several factors that, if it occurs, the price of the dollar will fall: Non-oil trade, smuggling of goods and imports from informal sources, inflation expectations and uncertainty about the current economic situation, increase in oil exports and foreign exchange earnings from this sector are among the factors that determine the price of dollars and other currencies under sanctions.
Referring to Iran’s blocked resources in other countries, Shaghaghishahri added: “According to government estimates, part of Iran’s foreign exchange resources, which are located in Japan and South Korea and are estimated at about $ 20 billion, will be released, which could affect currency prices.”
The economist also referred to the issue of oil exports and said: “First, the government in the budget bill of 1400, which was presented to the parliament, calculated the ceiling of oil exports at 2.3 million barrels per day, which of course Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, head of the Program and Budget Organization An explanation stated that the maximum sale of the title and the minimum figure was one million barrels per day, but the projected price for oil in 1400 is about $ 40 per barrel, but there are still doubts about the volume of oil sales.
Hot News:The pure moment of the Iranian soldier’s confrontation with his mother became the most visited movie! + Video
What are two important scenarios for the dollar to fall?
Shaghaghi-Shahri continued: “Based on two important scenarios, namely (forecasting the growth of oil exports next year and releasing part of Iran’s blocked resources), the price of the dollar will have a decreasing trend next year and will be in the range of 20,000 Tomans.”
The head of the Faculty of Economics of Kharazmi University also mentioned about the exchange rate in 1400: The price of 11,500 Tomans, which was also mentioned by the President, is about the exchange rate, which is discovered and examined by the accounting system due to exchange rate changes. And usually half the exchange rate is closer to the dollar in the open market.
Shaghaghi-Shahri predicted that if more of Iran’s blocked resources were released, the price of the currency might reach around 20,000 tomans, but it seems unlikely that this rate would reach 11,000 tomans.
According to forecasts, if each barrel of oil is sold at a price of $ 40, revenue of more than 199,000 billion tomans will be obtained through the sale of 2.3 million barrels of oil per day during the year 1400. Bringing the exchange rate to 11,000 tomans means a reduction of more than 57% in the exchange rate. Returning to the exchange rate of 11,000 Tomans without any structural reforms and reforming monetary, financial and trade policies means returning to the previous wrong path. The path that leads the country’s economy by injecting oil revenues to encourage more imports and weaken national production.
In the Iranian economy, which is currently experiencing inflation above 40% and the growth of liquidity each month sets a new record; Maintaining the “value of the national currency” and bringing the dollar rate to 11,000 tomans is a big “dream” that does not have a short-term or even medium-term perspective.