The expert on European issues said that the defeat of the Christian Democratic Party in the elections in the two German states has reasons, including the margins of the Corona pandemic, which in any case, its outcome is not positive for the upcoming elections.
The defeat of the Christian Democratic Union in two major regional elections has sparked much debate in German politics. To the extent that many commentators believe that there is no longer a clear horizon in front of Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of this country and her party. Accordingly, and to explore the hidden and hidden dimensions of this important political development, talk to Seyed Nader Nourbakhsh, European affairs expert We have dealt with it in detail as follows:
How did the different parties perform in the recent elections in the two German states from a historical point of view?
As you can see, in Germany, the center-right Christian Democrats (Angela Merkel) did poorly in both state elections on Sunday. The Green Party won in Baden-Württemberg and the Social Democrats in Rhineland-Palatinate.
First, we must note that the two parties, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) (center right) and the Social Democrats (SPD) (center left), now hold a coalition government with Chancellor Angela Merkel, the German government, which is only six months away. It remains. On the other hand, given the German federal system, which consists of 16 states, state elections, as an important part of the political and administrative structure, are considered at a separate level, of which Sunday’s election is an example.
According to the results in the state of Baden-Württemberg, Merkel’s party showed the weakest historical performance in its life with about 23%. In the same state, the Greens again won first place with about 31 percent of the vote, which is considered the highest number of votes in the life of this party, and therefore can continue to cooperate with the Merkel party in the local government of this state or leave it. Coalition with two other parties, including the Social Democrats and the Free Democrats. The state is one of the hubs of the automotive industry, and the results are humiliating for the Christian Democrats, who have been in the state government for 58 years and often have an absolute majority. Especially if we remember, during the 70’s they won 57% of the votes in this state and for many years it was considered the traditional base of the Christian Democrats. In the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, Merkel’s party, which won 32 percent of the vote in the previous round, won only 26 percent of the vote, while the Social Democrats retained first place with 35 percent.
What is the significance of the results of these two elections and why has the results been considered so much?
It should be noted that observers have long viewed the elections in the two geographically southwestern states as a benchmark for the upcoming September 26 general election. Especially since Merkel’s presidency will end in 16 to six months, and Germany will have a new chancellor.
These results are also significant for Armin Lasht, the current leader of the Christian Democrats, who recently took office, and may make it difficult for him as a possible party candidate for the post of Chancellor; In particular, many Conservatives see Markus Zoder, leader of the Bavarian Christian Democrats (CSU), as a better candidate for the next six months. Therefore, given the poor performance of the center-right, many believe that this party will have a very difficult path to succeed in the elections.
Can these results mean the end of the Christian Democratic Party’s popularity, and what was the reason for this decline?
Although Merkel’s coalition government was hailed for its strong management in the face of the Corona first wave in the spring and gained a high 40% popularity in opinion polls nationwide, it gradually, in the coming months, as restrictions were extended. The quarantine sparked protests, sparking public discontent and subsequent waves of coronary heart disease. On the other hand, the Minister of Health was criticized for issues such as the slow progress of the vaccination process, and finally the issue of the scandal related to the financial violations of party members in parliament about the mask also hit their popularity and this popularity is currently around It has dropped by 33%.
What will be the outlook for the upcoming general elections?
There is growing concern on the part of Merkel’s Christian Democrats that a coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats could oust the party from the executive branch in the upcoming general election, relying on the number of votes it casts. To win. A coalition that is known by the same name because of the similarity of the color symbol of its parties to the traffic lights of the same name. Of course, the political situation in Germany was relatively stable despite its parliamentary structure; As a rule, power was usually in the hands of the two main parties for decades. However, as the ruling party’s popularity declines and other parties, including the Greens, grow, the country’s political scene appears to be changing to the detriment of the big traditional parties.
What was the performance of the far right?
Another challenge that the German political scene has faced in recent years has been the growth of the far right at various levels, including partisan and underground. For example, the Alternative Party for Germany (AFD), which was founded in 2013 and in the elections of the same year did not even reach the quorum to enter parliament, in the next elections, in 2017 with about 13 percent of the vote won The EU’s anti-immigrant and anti-immigrant policies have entered the Bundestag (German parliament) as the third most powerful party and have taken an important position in the opposition. It should be noted, however, that in these two state elections on Sunday, Germany’s far-right party lost, with only about 10 to 11 percent. However, the party still has a relatively strong base in the East German states, and at the non-partisan level there are still far-right xenophobic and anti-immigrant tendencies.