According to IBNA, an economist, noting that the private sector in all countries of the world, for fear of US sanctions, is reluctant to establish trade and financial relations with Iran, said: “In the current situation, export-oriented products to attract commercial markets with complex problems They are together and it cannot be said that the opportunity created by the reduction of oil revenues can be an opportunity to recover exports.
In an interview with IBNA, Amir Hossein Shariati, in response to the question that reducing the sale of oil revenues could be an opportunity to strengthen production capacity and turn on export engines, said: Many investment delegations traveled to Iran after the Borjam talks and between 1994 and 1995 And even at the beginning of 1996, several business and investment delegations came to Iran to invest, but when Trump came to power, all equations fell apart.
He added: “According to the agreement of Borjam, which was registered in July 1994, in practice, companies were able to operate with Iran, but the important argument is that the economies of countries other than Iran are mostly in the hands of the private sector.” The private sector in these countries is not so influenced by governments that they want to trade with Iran and in return be subject to sanctions imposed on them by the US Treasury Department.
The economist continued: Renault, for example, is a private company with only 10% of its shares being state-owned, but a significant portion of Renault shares were bought by Nissan Japan. Because Nissan car sales in the United States are significant, even that company has minimized its presence in Iran since November 1996, after the passage of the Cadsa law.
“Under Cadza law, companies were barred from doing business with governments or trading positions that were hostile to the United States or did not serve US interests,” he said. As a result, Renault severely reduced its operations in Iran, and the company, which produced the L90 in Iran, gradually withdrew from Iran.
“Sanctions are not limited to the sale of oil, and the export of many non-oil goods is also restricted by the sanctions,” he said. Of course, the opportunity that can arise from the conditions of sanctions is to prevent the sale of raw materials. At present, the export of Iranian gasoline is not prohibited, and the reason is the demand of the countries around us, because their refineries can not produce according to the needs of these countries.
Shariati stated: ایران Iran’s neighboring countries that need gasoline submit their applications once every three months to renew these exemptions. It must be acknowledged that some benefit from the sanctions and some suffer.
He stressed: In general, the actor of the economy in many countries is the private sector; Therefore, the reduction of oil sales is an opportunity for Iran only when the private sector in other countries is willing to trade and trade with Iran and is not afraid of US sanctions.
The economist continued: Of course, there are companies that do business with Iran by bypassing routes, but it is not widespread. “There are a number of factors that affect the dollar exchange rate,” he said. “If there are conditions for the Borjam Plus negotiations to begin and additional negotiations to be added to the Borjam, it will take another year or two for the country to experience a return to.” The conditions of the last 8 years are possible in it.
Shariati said: Of course, some economies are not affected by US restrictions, for example, the Chinese economy, which has gone through the industrialization process very well, or for example, a country like Russia is not affected by US restrictions, but the important thing is that our view To discuss exports should be to countries in the region.
He added: “South Korea is a buyer of Iranian heavy oil because its refineries are designed to operate with the characteristics of Iranian heavy oil and high phosphorus and sulfur, and is one of the 7 countries whose refineries are designed based on Iranian oil.” But after the sanctions, the country reduced its official purchase of oil to a minimum, and informal purchase is also a swap.
The expert on economic issues emphasized: the situation will be suitable only if its effects on people’s lives are seen. Although the dollar has decreased to the range of 25,000 tomans and has been between 25,000 and 27,000 tomans over the past month, goods and services are still considered higher and many essential items for the people are accompanied by an increase.
Shariati said that the private sector in all countries of the world is reluctant to engage in trade and financial relations with Iran for fear of US sanctions, while the fate of Borjam and its return will require one to two years for trade delegations to return to Iran.