Predicting the fall in the price of the dollar / Why is the dollar getting cheaper?

According to Tejarat News, the last week of December was not pleasantly pleasant for investors in different markets; Almost all markets were devalued. Surveys show that among the markets, the stock market experienced more volatility and had many margins. However, the foreign exchange market was associated with the lowest price fluctuations and was relatively more stable than in previous months.

In the last few weeks, there have been no reports of sharp increases or decreases in the foreign exchange market. In such circumstances, some analysts believe that due to the economic components, the dollar rate can not be expected to reach below 24,000 tomans. According to them, the market will continue to increase over the course of the year, and if a political event occurs outside the borders or decisions are made inside that negatively meet expectations, one can even expect a sharp rise in prices. Be more.

On the other hand, some experts believe that the market is ready to reduce prices further in the winter of this year, because in recent months, many positive signals have been sent to the market, so the outlook for the foreign exchange market is declining. Meanwhile, some other market participants know how supply and demand and international political events are influential factors in discovering the price of currency.

In this regard, Alireza Abbasi, a foreign exchange expert, referring to the factors influencing the discovery of foreign exchange prices, said: The foreign exchange market is affected by the two main forces of demand and supply level in price discovery. In other words, the price of currency is discovered in the opposite of supply and demand, so how the price of currency depends on the volume of supply and demand. In Iran, the government and the central bank are known as the most important suppliers of currency. Their ability to manage and supply volume is very important.

Abbasi continued by pointing to the effective factors in increasing the exchange rate over the past year: The foreign exchange market has been associated with different issues over the past year. One of these issues was the Corona virus, which reduced the export of many of Iran’s non-oil products to neighboring countries. This reduction limited the level of exports of the country’s foreign exchange resources. On the other hand, tough sanctions and the inability of Iran to access its foreign exchange resources in foreign banks caused a larger volume of foreign exchange resources of the Central Bank to be in a tight spot.

Economics involved in currency inflammation

The foreign exchange market expert said: “On the other hand, people shifted part of their rial capital to foreign currencies to protect themselves from unbridled inflation, and this caused a sudden jump in the exchange rate, so sheltering rial capital to foreign currencies is a kind of currency inflammation.” It created the whole Iranian economy. Abbasi continued by examining the positive signals to the foreign exchange market and the situation in this sector in the coming months: “Currently, some positive signals from the economic future of Iran have been transmitted to the market and show that the foreign exchange market is on the path of relative stability There will be in the coming months.

“One of the positive signals is the change of government and the victory of Joe Biden. Now there is a possibility of a change in US strategies in the discussion of sanctions against Iran, and any change could block foreign exchange resources,” he said. To liberate Iran and return exports to pre-sanctions mode. On the other hand, the reduction of coronary fever due to the news of vaccine discovery and the reopening of some regional borders to Iran’s non-oil export market could promise to reduce inflammation and compensate for the backlog of foreign exchange earnings in the coming months.

The market is on a non-inflammatory path

At the end of his speech, the foreign exchange market expert continued by stating that some analysts believe that the exchange rate will increase: Some actors and foreign exchange market analysts believe that the decrease in Iran’s export resources is such that it may push current prices to higher prices. And the market will experience price increases in the coming months. But lower-than-expected inflation due to the possibility of a US return to the BRICS and a reduction in the corona fever indicates a more stable future for the market, and positive market forces are expected to control market conditions and lower exchange rates.

Source: Initiative

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