A policy that, if all the institutions worked well, would have had very good results for our economy, as if the same measures, according to the Governor of the Central Bank, had prevented a hyperinflation in the country’s economy. But in the meantime, the type of currency allocation and the lists provided by the ministries, the business cards issued by gambling and the poor monitoring of the country’s foreign exchange expenditures, caused a number of government currency credit lines to emerge from other markets. Achilles to manage the country’s currency. This also overshadowed the central bank’s monetary and fiscal policies.
Bahman Arman, an economist, told IBNA: “The Central Bank, both now that Dr. Hemmati is in office and has enough knowledge and experience, and under Dr. Nourbakhsh, made great efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.” . Because the existence of different exchange rates has always been vague, dangerous and corrupting.
Emphasizing that economics is strongly influenced by mathematics and statistics, he continued: When without a comprehensive study and sufficient consultation with experts and economists, they suddenly announced that one day the price is $ 4,200 and no one asked if this price Where does it come from and what is its basis? Since then, objections to the way it was allocated have been voiced by economists both inside and outside Iran against the decision, and ultimately the level of corruption caused by the ambiguity in the allocation of this currency and this type of pricing has led to the term “Global currency” should be associated more with humor than with scientific reality.
The economist added: “With the shortcomings that existed in the implementation, the result, as expected, was a widespread corruption in the allocation of currency along with the withdrawal of heavy financial resources from the country for unnecessary work and Iran becoming the largest buyer of housing in Turkey.”
Arman asked where the money that came out of Iran came from? He stated: In any case, in Turkey it is not possible to buy anything in Rials. Naturally, the source of these dollars was the dirty dollars, which in English is called Dirty money, which in the best case was sent to buy property in Turkey.
He added: “But on the other hand, the import of goods needed by the country was either not imported properly or goods were imported that Iran did not need in principle.” The economist expressed pessimism about the lists submitted to the Central Bank for the allocation of currency and said: “Even now, we see that rent-seeking and profiteering currents are strongly opposed to the removal of 4,200 Tomans in the 1400 budget, and the factors and tools They use themselves both in the media and in certain currents that they have in the Islamic Consultative Assembly.
“Consumer protection” replaces government currency
Arman added: “If the government intends to provide basic goods to the people at reasonable prices, it can do the same for basic goods, as it does for energy carriers, ie subsidized consumer protection.”
He continued: “For example, the cost of energy carriers in some cases does not even include the cost of transporting them, because our refineries are located in the south of the country and the cost of transporting them by pipe or tanker is very high.” Ballast. But the government provides this fuel to the people at a subsidized price. So, under normal circumstances, if they want to provide non-subsidized gasoline prices to the people, that is, the same price as in Turkey or in Europe, they have to sell something around one euro and 20 cents, equivalent to 35,000 tomans. But with subsidies, the government provides this to the final consumers, the citizens, at a much lower rate.
He added: “So if the government is not concerned with supporting rent-seekers and importers, it can eliminate this rate altogether and, as it subsidizes people with energy carriers, assume the prices of livestock inputs and oilseeds and vegetable oils with Bring price reform under its umbrella.
The economist explained this with an example and said: “Unfortunately, 85% of livestock inputs are imported in Iran, and this import has caused the price of chicken to reach 30 thousand tomans, which is naturally not within the purchasing power of the people and the solution is that The government itself should provide livestock input to consumer units such as livestock at subsidized prices. Or, for example, in the case of crude vegetable oils, about 92% of which are imported to Iran, if the price is corrected, it would naturally be more economical to plant oilseeds domestically than to allocate government currency.
He pointed out: “This method is responsive because, for example, in sugar production, with the price reform that took place and the allocation of currency for sugar imports decreased, this year we have almost reached the point where the need to import sugar at some point in the ninth governments And the tenth reached one million and 800 thousand tons, now, to be reduced to less than 300 thousand tons.
The central bank should continue its rational policy
Arman pointed out that the only solution and fight against corruption caused by government currency is to eliminate it: However, forcing next year’s budget will practically lead us to eliminate USD 4,200. Because it is predicted that we will not have much revenue from oil sales next year, and in the case of exports of petrochemicals and steel, which are our main exports, it is not yet possible to return the currency, while producing each ton of steel costs about $ 100. Our steel exporting companies need to use this currency to buy their own raw materials.
He added: “Therefore, there will be a shortage of currency next year, and the only way to protect foreign exchange resources that can be achieved with this difficulty is to restrain them in spending and saving, and the only way to save is to eliminate the allocation of currency in its current form and It is worth 4,200 Tomans.
Arman emphasized the pressure on the central bank to allocate currency for certain goods: “I think the central bank, especially since Dr. Hemmati came to power, has pursued a rational policy to prevent the dollar from splitting.” . Because they know that these dollars may come from the Turkish housing market.
The economist concluded by stating that the central bank in Iran is not yet sufficiently independent, noting: “We economists have worked hard over the past forty years to ensure that the central bank has sufficient operational independence.” Unfortunately, this has not happened and the central bank has limited powers; But even in these circumstances, what he can focus on and do right is to fight and resist irrational and unscientific external pressures.