Sharp increase in Iranian oil exports

According to Eqtesadnews, quoting Fars and Reuters, according to the estimates of three companies, Iran’s oil exports, despite sanctions, are increasing in January 2021, after increasing in the fourth quarter of last year.

This shows that with the end of Donald Trump’s presidency, the behavior of Iranian oil buyers can change.

Iran’s oil exports have declined since 2018, when Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. New US President Joe Biden has said that if Iran adheres to the agreement, Washington will retaliate.

Caucasians and Tajiks also enter the Iranian oil market

Statistics from SVB International and two other companies that estimate Iran’s oil supply by tracking tankers show that the country’s exports are increasing.

SVB International estimates that Iran’s oil exports have increased from 490,000 barrels per day in October to 710,000 barrels per day in December (the last month of 2020). It is increasing.

“Iran and its customers expect an easier approach from the Biden government,” said Sarah Vakhshori, an SVB official.

“Iran has already begun to increase production and exports in anticipation of a change in US approach,” he said.

Tehran and some of its customers, such as China, say US sanctions are illegal.

The Swiss company Petrolastic also predicted that Iran’s oil exports this month (January) will increase to 600,000 barrels per day for the first time since April 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020, this figure had increased to 100,000 barrels per day.

“We have seen an increase in Iranian oil exports over the past few months,” Petrolastic wrote in an email to Reuters.

Although this statistic is very far from the export figure of 2.7 million barrels per day in May 2018, but the level of exports in January shows a significant increase.

Refinitive Icon statistics show daily exports of 370,000 barrels of Iranian oil in December. According to the company’s statistics, Iran’s oil exports in some months of 2020, will be reduced to less than 100,000 to 200,000 barrels per day.

Last week, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, without providing statistics, said his country’s oil exports had recently increased significantly.

* Tracing Iranian oil is difficult

There are no exact figures for Iran’s oil exports. Tankers have a satellite tracking system, but this device can be turned off, making it difficult to adjust to weekly schedules and changes.

An informed source in the third cargo tracking company believes that the amount of cargo in January will not be more than 500,000 barrels per day, but it is more than in December.

He clarified that the behavior of Iran’s key buyers could change in the coming months.

“Now Trump is gone and the question is whether China and India will continue not to buy from Iran,” he added.