Government Bill Budget for the year 1400 Submitted 3 weeks ago Parliament But from the very beginning, there was a lot of criticism about it. Next year’s budget 2 thousand and 435 thousand billion Tomans, of which 841 thousand billion Tomans have been introduced as the general budget of the government and 88 thousand and 400 billion Tomans as the exclusive revenues of the government and also 1,560 thousand billion Tomans as the budget of state companies.
In the sources of the budget bill, one of the most controversial sectors is the sale of oil, which is projected at 2.3 million barrels per day at a price of $ 40 per barrel and revenue of 192,000 billion tomans per day, which is 7% more than this year. / 3 times.
On the other hand, in 1999, the share of the National Development Fund was 36%, which reached 38% in 1400, and also the price of the dollar, which was considered 4200 Tomans this year and then 8500 Tomans, has increased to 11500 Tomans.
This budget has serious drawbacks; As mentioned, one of the problems is the sale of oil. In the budget of 1399, the role of oil was 8%, but in 1400, its role has become much more prominent. This happened while the wise leader of the revolution has repeatedly warned about the reduction of the country’s budget dependence on oil, but the budget of 1400 was written against this issue and with emphasis on the sale of oil.
Many economists believe that the 1400 budget is heavily dependent on foreign developments, and the budget figures show that, unfortunately, the government is still optimistic about the negotiations and thinks that oil sanctions will be lifted and there will be room for the sale of oil securities; That is why it has forecast such a figure for oil sales in the budget. The government’s optimistic estimate of oil sales next year and its reliance on this imaginary income, however, will become a factor in intensifying inflation in the domestic economy and a weakness for the country in the international arena. It should be noted that the country’s oil sales are currently one-fifth of the daily oil sales forecast in the 1400 budget, and this forecast has been made while we can not hope for the lifting of sanctions and the implementation of the UN Security Council.
The reason for this should be considered in the developments of the last year that after the assassination of Martyr Sardar Haj Ghasem Soleimani by Trump’s direct order last year and the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, issues are much more complicated than before and the country’s budget should not be based on foreign developments. He wrote in the hope of negotiations and it should be drafted according to the internal conditions.
The Supreme Leader of the Revolution also warned about this issue in the recent meeting of the Supreme Economic Coordination Council and said, “Let it be said that the current situation is not going to change with the arrival of the new US administration.”
He also said that the government and parliament should anticipate a comprehensive budget away from political factions, taking into account possible crises and foreign movements. On the other hand, one of the most important concerns of the great leader of the revolution, which is to reform the budget structure of the country and has been emphasized many times in recent years, is not included in the budget of 1400 and this budget is in line with previous years without considering the real situation. Written.
The fact is that the budget should be flexible and commensurate with the economic reality of the country and its orientation towards supporting domestic production and reducing rent-seeking platforms, but in the 1400 budget, none of this has been achieved.
It also seems that the Joint Commission should have a closer look at the general budgets and the payroll, revenue and expenditure of the agencies. In addition, the issue of government securities and companies and non-profit institutions should be seriously considered in the 1400 budget bill.
Dr. Mehdi Besharat