According to the Guardian, all viruses, and indeed coronaviruses, mutate all the time, so the emergence of a new species of Covid 19 in the UK is not unexpected.
More than 4,000 Sars-Cov-2 mutations have been observed so far, a handful of which appear to be significant, said Dr Mog Civic, a member of the Nervtag Advisory Group on New Threatened Respiratory Viruses.
According to Chris Whitty, chief medical officer of the United Kingdom, the newly discovered species in the southeast could be up to 70 percent more transmissible and increase the R (baseline replication rate) by 10 percent or more.
Based on the data obtained so far, it does not appear to increase the risk of severe disease or mortality.
In a summary published in the Nervtag on Sunday, experts wrote that they have a moderate confidence that this species will have a significant increase in transferability compared to other species. They warned, however, that the data was rudimentary and based on modeling.
“Although the results depend on the quality and quantity of the data you provide, it seems that this new species is based on genetic data – it is potentially more transferable, but we do not know how much certainty we have,” Civic said. “… We can’t create a causal relationship right now, it’s just a communication effect.”
Stuart Neal, a professor of virology at King’s College London, said: “The data collected so far is consistent with the notion that this species is more contagious, or could spread more efficiently, but lab-based confirmation of it or any idea why “We do not have this species spreading faster.”
According to the virologist, this species has been associated with 10% to 15% of cases in special areas over the past few weeks, but last week it increased to almost 60% of cases in London.
“The biggest concern for scientists right now is a change in the spike protein of this species – the part of the virus that allows it to penetrate cells in the lungs, throat and nasal cavity by interacting with a receptor called ACE2,” Neil said.
“Mutations in spike protein may increase the virus’ ability to interact with ACE2 and give it an advantage. On the other hand, spike protein is a viral particle that vaccines are designed to develop antibodies against, so this mutation can Prevents the vaccine from performing its function.
“This is something we really need to monitor,” the researcher said.
Another major concern, according to Dr. Civic, is that it is not yet clear how many factors have contributed to the increase in transfers in recent weeks. It is likely that this species has affected transferability, but high transfer rates have also been observed in areas with higher restrictions.
“Sometimes it comes down to the disturbing reality of social inequality,” he said. Restrictions have limited effects on people who cannot work from home. If this is more transferable, is the social distancing guideline sufficient?
According to experts, we still do not know enough about this species to know its impact on the current guideline of social distancing and the use of masks.
“I think a lot of people are very comfortable getting away now, and we have to remember that the closer you get to someone, the greater the risk,” said Katherine Knox, a professor of environmental engineering at the University of Leeds and a member of Sage. “
“We have to try as much as we can to reduce our chances of being exposed to the virus,” he said. In cases where interactions are necessary, be really strict in applying the actions we take. There are many advantages to not having schools open now.
“One of the questions I have been asked is whether it makes sense to go back to school in early January, even if it does,” said Professor Andrew Hayward, Professor of Epidemiology at University College London and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergency Sage “It should be an intermittent start to plan for all students to return to school.”
“As a scientist, I say that the most effective way to block the transmission of a virus is to limit any contact between anyone who can transmit the virus. But on the other hand, families, who see the limiting effects of growth and “How harmful can the education of children be through the closure of schools?”
“I think the last thing we should consider is the closure of the school. However, I do support staff testing with a much more aggressive outlook,” he said.
Should we worry?
“I think we have enough information that this species has the potential to cause a larger epidemic than we previously predicted. Note that the increase in transmission, even given the same mortality rate,” said Professor Andrew Hayward. “It will lead to more deaths.”
“I think we will balance the restrictions in the next few months … until we have enough vaccine coverage to be able to reduce the restrictions a little bit,” Novax said.
As concerns about the spread of the newly discovered species of coronavirus in the UK continue, various countries, including those across Europe, are imposing new restrictions on the UK destination.