99; The year of reformist uncertainty
With the beginning of 1399 and after the beginning of the first weeks of the year, the reformist political current, which was not in a favorable condition due to the shock caused by the defeat in the elections and is almost in a media silence, faced a news shock; The resignation of Abdul Wahed Mousavi Lari, Minister of Interior of the Reform Government, from the position of Deputy Chairman of the Supreme Council for Reform Policy, which is considered the highest decision-making body of the reformist movement and was responsible for creating consensus and presenting the electoral list in various elections. “Based on the current results of the process of reviewing the qualifications of the reformist candidates …” Unfortunately, most of the secretaries-general of our parties and prominent figures in most constituencies have been disqualified, making it possible for candidates from this front to attend, “the statement said. “Complete constituencies are not available at 208 constituencies across the country, and fair competition for the entrenched reformist current is not possible.” Thus, due to the widespread disqualification of candidates in the majority of constituencies, the publication of the electoral roll was considered impossible.
In the text of his resignation, Mousavi lari spoke of “the need to review the reformist structures and consensus mechanisms in order to play a better and more appropriate role and to update the reformists’ participation in the 1400 elections,” a phrase that shows differences in internal tastes about continuing the work of the High Policy Council. Has been.
Less than two months after his resignation, another news item was published in the media about the resignation of Mohammad Reza Aref, the council’s chairman, in March of the same year, which Aref gave to Davood Mohammadi as the council’s liaison with the Interior Ministry, but no media coverage. Aref’s resignation was in fact a seal of approval for the end of the work of this council, and with the publication of this news, the reason for not holding meetings of this council between March 1998 and the summer of 1999 was determined; Dissatisfied members and resigned board of directors.
These conditions were a good opportunity for the current parties, which until then had been active in the Supreme Policy Council with the addition of real figures, to resume their activities under the name of the Coordinating Council of Reformist Parties and to consider the conditions for participating in the upcoming elections. The exact date of the beginning of the meetings of this council is not known, but what seems certain is that the Coordination Council of the Reform Front has spent all the summer and autumn of 1999 holding dialogue, exchange, opinion polls and consultations to draft the election manifesto, but fate The final result of these meetings less than 6 months before the election, no information is correct. Of course, last Monday, a news item titled “Resolutions of the Coordination Council of the Reform Front regarding the” Consensus-Building Institution “and the Electoral Manifesto of 1400” was published in the media, which indicated the results of these meetings; But the general content of this resolution and the repetition of some slogans in it, instead of clarifying, adds to the ambiguities. In this regard, the ILNA correspondent’s pursuit of two general secretaries of the parties to resolve these ambiguities showed a lack of coordination among the members of the council.
Ali Sufi, secretary general of the Progressive Reform Party, said that “this resolution is not final” and added: “The reason for these ambiguities and questions is that this resolution has not been finalized yet and was not supposed to be published in the media at all. “I do not know who obtained and published it, but I can tell you that this resolution is incomplete now and still works.”
On the other hand, Javad Imam, Secretary General of the Reformist Veterans Association Party, regarding the latest process of drafting this manifesto, stated: “ This issue is still on the agenda of the Coordination Council of Reformist Parties. Related discussions have taken place and it will take some time as the decision to be taken is to be unanimous and agreed upon by all parties. “I think the process of reviewing and reaching a conclusion on the reformist consensus-building body will be completed by the end of this month (December) and the result will be announced.”
The remarks made by the two secretary generals of the council, which are in clear contradiction to the news, show that the Coordination Council, despite numerous meetings and consultations, has not yet made a clear decision on the election issue. As a result, it is not wrong to say that the reformists are still in a state of structural and internal uncertainty less than six months before the election, which, of course, has not been ineffective in shaping the Guardian Council’s role as a candidate in the last parliamentary elections.
Fundamentalists; Permanent difference between the three sides of a triangle
On the other hand, the field of political activity in Iran is the right-wing, those who are divided into three groups: the traditional right, the fundamentalists and the Front for Stability. These days, they have better conditions than their longtime rival, the reformists; They are confident of a definite victory in next year’s election. These days, they are more concerned with the extent to which each spectrum will benefit from their future victory. But the reason for this assurance of victory has little to do with the capabilities of this movement, but its roots go back to the problem of gasoline prices in November 1998 and subsequent events and, of course, numerous economic problems before and after. The presence of Trump and the ouster of Borjam as the most important achievement of the Rouhani administration caused many economic problems in the country. To this can be added managerial weaknesses, which combine to create a mixture of various economic problems, which failed the Rouhani government as a government supported by the reformists and discouraged various sections of the people and even the reformist supporters towards them and lack of Attendance at the ballot box.
In such a situation, and given that the fundamentalists were not too worried about introducing the candidate and his approval by the Guardian Council, it is natural for them to consider themselves the winners of the upcoming elections. As they took advantage of these factors, namely the discouragement of the people due to many economic problems, the approval of the principled candidates and the widespread disqualification of the rival candidates, they succeeded in winning the elections in which the lowest turnout was between different periods of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. Find and form a unified principled assembly from within it. Therefore, it is not unreasonable if they are intoxicated by this victory and think of winning the two elections of the thirteenth presidential term and the sixth term of the councils. But this assurance of victory has not only been an excuse for unity, but has become a divisive factor.
In the parliamentary elections, the fundamentalists tried to achieve maximum unity in order to achieve the issue of unity and to continue the activities of the Jamna consensus organization, which was active in 1996, under the title of “Council of Revolutionary Forces”, but in this election groups such as the militant clergy The Islamic Coalition Party and the Imam Khomeini Front and the leadership had the least role in the council and the share of the final list. This incident caused the militant clergy community to hold provincial assemblies and set up offices in the provinces in an unprecedented move since the beginning of 1999. This political organization, which has a long history and has always played a paternalistic role for the right and the fundamentalists, felt that it was left out of the decision-making cycle in this election. Therefore, he decided to work extensively and comprehensively, this was in the context that Ayatollah Muqtada’i, the vice president of the Teachers’ Association, as the other wing of the university, announced a few weeks ago “that the organization did not nominate a candidate in next year’s presidential election.”
Although the community of teachers announced the non-nomination of a candidate, the militant clergy was not alone in this. The Imam Khomeini Front and the leadership, as one of the oldest consensus-building organizations, announced that it would not refrain from any cooperation with this group. Sajjadi, a spokesman for the Followers’ Front, said: “Given that we know the community of teachers and the clergy as reference groups, and given the relationship we have always had with the clergy over the years, we are trying to establish the paternal status of this organization. “Keep it in the flow of fundamentalism.”
Over time, however, it became clear that the modern fundamentalists were reluctant to form a coalition under the auspices of the militant clergy and decided to continue to operate independently. The group, of which Mehdi Chamran and Parviz Sarvari are two prominent members, has been active for several months. They pursued the Coalition Council, a consensus-building body formed in the 11th parliamentary elections but criticized by the way it operated. Mehdi Chamran told ILNA about the process of activities of the Coalition Council and its formation for the upcoming elections: “The process of holding city councils will start very soon and maybe even in the next month, and they will do organizational work in each city for now. “Next, let’s move on to holding provincial assemblies, and then holding a central assembly, which seems to take place after Nowruz in 1400.” These remarks showed that the Coalition Council and its leaders in Tehran intend to hold the next elections through this background.
The more the traditional and modern sides of the fundamentalists tried to avoid taking any public position, but the process of announcing their positions in the media was a matter of disagreement and taste until last Monday, the Secretary General of the Islamic Coalition Party did not reach an agreement with the Coalition Council. The forces of the revolution or “Shana” announced. In this regard, Badamchian explained: “At the beginning of Muharram, we had several meetings with the friends of the Coalition Council in the presence of Bandeh and Engineer Bahonar, and the issue of unity was raised. He continued: “About two months ago, the clergy invited more than 40 fundamentalist parties, and a new mechanism was created to have one representative from each of the eight parties in this council, and the name of this council will be” Unity Council “. »
Confirming the news, Parviz Sarvari said: “We had the same process in the Coalition Council during the parliamentary elections, and many discussions and various meetings were held with the clergy until we finally reached a final conclusion. The process is the same now “(read here). In other words, the Coalition Council is still interested in the coalition and the unity of other fundamentalists, as it was in the previous elections, which is not in line with the way the militant clergy works. They will go to the coalition, but they will wait for the opposite spectrum to come to them for unity.
With this announcement, it can be seen that at least so far the two main groups of fundamentalists have not been very successful in achieving unity, and the traditional fundamentalists will pursue their electoral goals with the “Unity Council” and the modern fundamentalists in the “Coalition Council”.
Among the activities of these two major fundamentalist groups, there is less noise from the Front for Stability, the students of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, with whom reaching an agreement is one of the most difficult tasks for modern and traditional fundamentalists, but so far there has been a lot of reaction on the election issue. They did not. Their most serious reaction to the election until last week may be the protests of members close to the front against the possible candidacy of Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the current head of the legislature, in the presidential election.
Of course, this silence does not mean passivity, because in a situation where during the elections, some unofficial rumors about the role and a kind of obstruction of the product in the process of unification of the Sustainability Front with the Coalition Council in the political space, members of the Central Council of this political organization In the past few days, Morteza Aghatehrani was left out and the product was chosen as the secretary general of this political organization. An action that could perhaps be interpreted as a serious determination to run independently in both the city council and presidential elections.
While the militant clergy community has announced the invitation of the Stability Front to be a member of the Unity Council and to hold meetings for dialogue and consultation, the Coalition Council has said that consultations with the Stability Front have not started, which means that the militant clergy have more hope for agreement and coalition. It has stability with the front.