According to reports EconomyNews In the second quarter of the year, coins and dollars tried to make up for their price lag with the stock market, and the summer price trend showed 65% growth in coins and 43% in dollars. Meanwhile, stock market returns fell to 25 percent.
Thus, it can be said that all markets were upward in the first half of the year, but their intensity was different in spring and summer. The third season of the year was a time to make up for the extra jump that occurred in spring and summer. In the fall, prices in all three markets retreated to make the desire for equilibrium more apparent; In terms of price trends, the stock market, the dollar and the coin experienced a downward convergence in the fall.
Autumn was the time of decline of all markets; The third quarter of this year with a sharp rise in prices in Currency market And the coin started, but this trend changed from the last week of October, and gradually, as sales increased, prices reached a lower level than at the end of the summer. The dollar, which was in the channel of 27,000 Tomans at the end of the summer, was at 25,450 Tomans on the last day of December; Two channels of decline in three months and a decline of 6.6 percent.
The dollar fell seasonally as US banknotes rose 43 percent in the summer and 18 percent in the spring. If the market trend is to change in the second half of the year, it can be imagined that in winter the price of this currency will decrease even more. In the foreign exchange market alone, the behavior of traders had not changed; in other markets, too, the general actors had become sellers.
For example, the Emami coin lost more than 10 percent of its value in the third quarter of the year. This precious metal was in the channel of 13 million in late summer, while at the end of December it was in the range of 11 million and 770 thousand tomans, which showed a negative return of 10% of domestic precious metal. The coin experienced a 65% price increase in the summer and increased in the spring. Such a trend prevailed in the stock market. Overall Index Exchange Which had an upward trend in the first and second seasons of the year, was affected by downward trends in the fall.
Thus, it can be said that all high-risk markets put their traders at a disadvantage in the first three months of the second half of the year, after the large profits they made in the first six months of the year. Two important factors influencing the downward trend of all markets can be identified;
It seems that the currency and coin market trends in winter also determine their position under the influence of the first variable, namely the size of inflation expectations. Some believe that the possibility of Iran-US talks in the winter could lead to further easing of inflation expectations and consequently a further decline. Prices for coins And become dollars. However, some activists believe that there will be no negotiations or that sanctions will not be lifted immediately. The group believes the markets will take a different path in the final season than in the fall. Of course, the market trend in the last days of autumn was more in line with the opinion of the first group. There was no special demand in the currency and coin market in the last days of the market.
The same factor caused the dollar to lose about 1.9 percent of its value in December. The situation in the coin market was slightly different and this precious metal was able to resist the price reduction in December and increased by about 0.4 percent. Coins are looking forward to future growth ounce of gold They are somewhat optimistic and expect that with the passage of the US support package, gold price Take steps to higher levels.
However, the coin will need wings and the help of dollars if it wants to experience a significant increase. Without the increase of the dollar, it is difficult for the coin to return even above 13 million tomans, which was the price of this precious metal at the end of the summer. In addition, in the stock market, the situation changed slightly in December and the overall stock index showed an upward behavior. With these descriptions, it can be said that the trend of the end of autumn indicated more about the possible strengthening of the stock market and coins against the dollar.
Narrating a descent in the fall
The behavior of the dollar in the fall can be divided into three different parts. The first three weeks of October, when the price was rising rapidly. The first decline of the market occurred three weeks before the US elections and the second fall of the dollar after the US elections. In the first phase, the dollar started its upward movement from the channel of 27 thousand Tomans and went above 32 thousand Tomans. From October 17, it went down the market direction and fell back to the range of 27,000 Tomans until the US elections, which is November 31.
In fact, the dollar had returned all its October increase in early November. With the announcement of the preliminary results of the US elections and Trump’s victory in some key states, the amount of purchases in the market increased very much and even the price of the dollar was once again on the verge of 30,000 Tomans. However, with Biden’s victory, sales in the foreign exchange market increased sharply and even the price went below 24,000 tomans at some point. By the end of the fall, almost balanced conditions had prevailed in the market. The price mainly fluctuated between 25 thousand and 800 to 26 thousand and 300 tomans until the last days of December, The price of the dollar It also went below 25 thousand and 500 tomans. It is said that if the dollar loses the range of 25,200 tomans, it can fall to the channel of 24,000 tomans.
Return of the three stock markets, dollars and coins in 99
Gold Market Gold returns to the starting point of autumn
“The image of gold in the fall can be seen in the high daily and weekly fluctuations, but the failure to reach higher price limits can be seen,” World Economy wrote. The Yellow Metal started the first day of October at close to $ 1,900, but could not maintain its position above this important psychological threshold for the rest of the season, ending at $ 1,880 to drop one percent in the fall for an ounce. . Generally
The most important challenge for traders this season was gold trading between the $ 1,900 and $ 1,800 channels.
The highest price that gold could record in these three months was the record value of $ 1965, which was recorded on November 3.
Market optimism about Joe Biden’s victory and the possibility of further expansion by his Democratic team pushed gold back to $ 2,000, but about a week later on November 9, with the first news of the Corona vaccine being successful, the precious metal within a day. It had a price drop of more than 4.5 percent to quickly reach the price of $ 1860 from the middle of the $ 1900 channel.
Then came the news of the discovery of new effective vaccines for the corona virus and the hope that markets would improve the economic outlook and consequently increase the risk-taking of traders in the dark days of gold. The same trend continued until the precious metal reached its lowest price in the fall in the last days of November with a price of $ 1764.
November, which initially seemed like a good month for gold due to the US election results, turned into one of the worst ounce months in recent years, with news turning to vaccines, with a negative monthly return of 5.4 percent.
In September, when two-thirds of it has passed and investors are on the verge of the end of the year, gold performed better than the previous month, and finally this precious metal has offset most of the losses in November so far, to some extent It can be said that gold has settled in this fall with all its ups and downs.
Cast September and October
Gold was entering the fall months, when it had already set dream months for traders, except in August. Gold on the Corona Pandemic Wave and the expansionary measures of central banks to counter the economic effects of the pandem had a four-month uptrend. Interestingly, the amount of these returns was significant, for example, the total return of the yellow metal in April and July was almost equal to the total return of gold in 2019; However, 2019 itself was one of the best years of the last decade for the precious metals market.
The same trend caused gold to hit its all-time high of $ 2073 in August, on the eve of the third quarter of the year. However, in September, many traders sold part of their assets to maintain their profits, so that the yellow metal lost about 5% of its value in September and October.
Another factor that prevented gold from staying above $ 1,900 during those two months was the lengthy and fruitless negotiations between White House officials, including Steven Manuchein and Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, over a new stimulus package. . Gold, which experts say was the main driver of its rise in the first half of 2020 due to expansionary and supportive measures by central banks, lost its monetary support after the end of July and the expiration of the last support package in the United States.
While in the negotiations, the Democratic Party insisted on a package worth more than $ 2,000 billion, Republican lawmakers insisted on a smaller package. In general, with the expansion of expansionary measures, inflation expectations among traders increase, and on the other hand, with the devaluation of the US dollar for the same reason, the conditions for the rise of the value of gold are provided.
The adventurous month of November
As November approached, markets were focused on one issue: the US presidential election. A competition that at first seemed very close, and of course to some extent it did. With Biden’s victory marked, gold was one of the markets that welcomed the old Democrat’s victory.
Rising hopes for further supportive and expansionary measures by the Biden government have pushed gold to the $ 1,950 mark, prompting many investors to enter its third millennium. But less than a week after the election, things changed dramatically; The news of the corona vaccine and the successive announcements of various companies, such as cold water, poured over the body of gold and lowered its price to the middle of the $ 1,700 channel.
At the beginning of December, gold fluctuated in Congress due to conflicting factors, including vaccine news, trade negotiations and a new $ 908 billion support package in Congress. The month in which the power of the uptrend has so far outpaced the downtrend, and has finally caused gold to end the season full of events and adventures, almost at its starting point in the fall, by standing at the price of $ 1880.