In an article, Russian political analyst Alexander Nazarov addressed the current state of the world and the current crises, especially the crisis between allies and coalitions, and wrote that countries will have to make significant changes in their policies next year.
He wrote on the Russia Today website that the world system is following a series of crises, crises that each have their own characteristics, but the crisis that most countries in the world are facing is the crisis of allies and coalitions.
According to him, the growing economic problems have forced large countries to reconsider their policies and coalitions and look at domestic problems.
“The period of forgiveness and financial assistance to the leaders is over and tensions and conflicts with subordinates have begun,” Nazarov added.
The Russian analyst explained that the United States is trying to get the last drop of its allies’ extract and that it may sign a arms deal with Saudi Arabia again. Or the differences that have arisen in NATO over the small share of smaller members. The EU is also moving from crisis to crisis. It is not long after Britain left the bloc that the Netherlands and Hungary blocked the EU budget.
Russia is another country that has pursued a policy of increasing pragmatism and reduced financial support for its allies. This has been well demonstrated in Belarus, which has benefited from cheap Russian oil and gas aid.
But in West Asia, the Gulf Cooperation Council and Saudi Arabia face similar threats. As the UAE seeks to play an increasingly independent role, especially in Yemen, Qatar has publicly withdrawn from the council’s policies.
According to this Russian analyst, this is not the only problem. The bottom line is that US policies have led Riyadh to reconsider its position on allies and various organizations. Naturally, financial issues are behind this, and the Saudi government no longer has the ability to make endless donations, and at the same time, the appetite of the recipients of this aid has increased.
The financial crisis continues among the Arab countries along the Persian Gulf, due to falling oil prices and the spread of the Corona virus in the wake of the global economic crisis.
The main recipients of Saudi aid, including Bahrain, Jordan and Egypt, also have economic problems and an inability to control their economic situation. Oman is in the same situation and needs financial assistance. But the Saudi government itself suffers from a very high budget deficit and needs money, so Kuwait and the UAE have already bought shares in the Aramco oil company.
Alexander Nazarov later wrote: “At one time, Muammar Gaddafi generously spent all his oil dollars on foreign projects, aid and conspiracies, when half the streets of Tripoli, the Libyan capital, were not paved. I believe that Riyadh is well aware of the consequences of such policies for internal security, even in rich countries. “So I believe that as Saudi Arabia’s influence among its foreign allies diminishes, we will soon see a significant reduction in the Saudi government’s spending on foreign projects.”
“Under these circumstances, the Riyadh government seems to have a strong desire to end the war in Yemen,” the Russian analyst wrote. In particular, the “Houthis” have proved that the Saudi coalition has no hope of winning the war, despite the staggering cost incurred by the Saudi government in the Yemeni war. The Wilson Center American think tank announced in 2015 that the Yemeni war costs $ 200 million a day, most of which is covered by the Saudi government. Therefore, Riyadh cannot afford this amount for a war whose future is completely uncertain.
Nazarov then wrote that with regard to Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal from Yemen, Riyadh is facing major problems that make any retreat from the country very difficult, and that the Saudis are somehow stuck in Yemen.
“In the absence of a clear framework and method for achieving stability in Yemen with conditions that are somewhat acceptable to Riyadh, and as differences and tensions between allies are growing, the Saudi government is facing difficulties in withdrawing from Yemen,” he added. . “On the other hand, the Saudis believe that if they leave Yemen, the UAE will increase its influence and the Saudis will lose their leadership on the Arabian Peninsula.”
The Russian analyst then wrote: “The situation in Yemen has become as catastrophic for the Saudi government as Afghanistan has become an unsolvable problem for the United States. “He can not leave Yemen and it is not possible for him to continue.”
“At the same time, the weakening of the Saudi government in Yemen will overshadow the role and credibility of the country in the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the structure of this council may be endangered,” Nazarov explained. On the other hand, it is possible that the end of the Yemeni war will be accompanied by Qatar’s move to completely destroy the GCC. Of course, not formally, but at the level of impact on the essence of the organization. An event that is now moving in the direction of events.
“Despite all the efforts of Saudi Arabia, it is clear that the country is able to get rid of a war that has cost it dearly in terms of civilian casualties and international financial and notoriety costs,” Ari Hestin, director of the Zionist Center for Internal Security Research, wrote in a note. Has, does not; Because if he wants to withdraw from Yemen before reaching a political solution – given that any political settlement is unlikely in the current situation – it will cause the fall of the government. [منصور هادی] “Yemen will be under pressure from the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia will leave Yemen without any channel of influence, which is often described as Saudi privacy.”
Finally, according to the latest report by the Ain Human Rights Center, which examines and documents the latest statistics on the number of casualties in the Yemeni war, 43,397 people have been killed and wounded in the six-year war in Yemen, according to Dr. Taha. Yemeni Minister of Health Al-Mutawakil The number of children born with genetic defects due to the Saudi coalition’s use of banned weapons has increased.